Mubarek Steps Down

A pattern is emerging.  Shutting off the internet is a precursor to the end.  The end of a oppressive regime in Egypt, and perhaps a shot across the bow of American Politics.

The powers that be need to understand the people truly do have the power, and that nothing can stand in the way of a popular revolt, once the populace decide to do it.  Obviously the playbooks on things like flipping the switch on the intertubes are still being written.  But this is a lesson most governments should be learning:  Nothing can be a more catalytic force than attempting to cut off our internet. 

Mubarek Shuts Down Remaining ISP

The power has been presumably cut off to Egypt's final ISP left standing.  Mubarek has cut off the ISP that served the Stock Exchange and government websites

Noor Group, a small service provider that hosted Internet connections for the country's stock exchange and other businesses, became completely unreachable at around 10:46 p.m. Cairo time (Eastern European Time), according to Earl Zmijewski, general manager with Internet monitoring company Renesys. 'It looks like they're completely lights-out now,' he told IDG News' Robert McMillan. Thought to handle only about 8 percent of the country's Internet connections, Noor had served as a critical lifeline to Egypt since the government had ordered service cut early Friday morning. Nobody is sure how Noor was able to keep operating, even as larger ISPs such as Vodafone and Telecom Egypt voluntarily cut their Egyptian networks off from the rest of the world."

Noor means "the Light" in Arabic, I guess you could say this light has been extinguished.

Egyptian Army Vows Not to Use Force

In an interesting development the Egyptian Military is vowing not to use force to violently quell the populace.
Did they just give the go-ahead to oust Mubarek?  Some would say so.  With the Army intending to sit this one out and let the people have their way, now would be the time.

Considering Mubarek's new cabinet appointments, which include a torutrer and an organized criminal, it seems as if Mubarek is gearing up for some democracy stomping.  It takes nerves of steel to crack down in the face of flaring uprising.

That lack of squeamishness has yet to characterize Mubarak’s response to the protests. Mubarak wants to hold on to power, and so he’s not yet engaged in a bloodletting. But dissidents are calling for a general strike and a million-strong protest march Tuesday to force Mubarak out. With his new security officials in place, Mubarak would be well-positioned to crack down.

Is Egypt a preview of what to expect in the USA?  Stay tuned.

Egypt clamps down on journalists

Shortly before 11 a.m., Al-Jazeera announced on the air that Anas al-Fiqi, information minister in the cabinet that was dismissed on Friday, had ordered the offices of all Al-Jazeera bureaus in Egypt shut down and the accreditation of all network journalists revoked. The official Middle East News Agency (MENA) reported that the order was to take effect on Sunday, and transmissions originating from Egypt ceased within an hour of the announcement. The discharged information minister ordered "the relevant government agencies to take the immediate legal measures necessary to revoke the licenses for live satellite transmission equipment (S.N.G.) and fiber optic cables or any other means of communication provided to Al-Jazeera," MENA reported.

"The shutting down of Al-Jazeera is a brazen violation of the fundamental right of Egyptians to receive information as their country is in turmoil," said Mohamed Abdel Dayem, CPJ Middle East and North Africa program coordinator. "The international community should prevail upon President Mubarak to lift this censorship immediately."

Today is the sixth day of massive street demonstrations in which citizens had been demanding political, social, and economic reforms, though demonstrators are now calling for the complete removal of Mubarak's three-decade-long regime. On Thursday, authorities suspended Internet and mobile phone service, according to news reports and mobile operators, in an effort to disrupt communications between protesters as well as transmission of news. On Saturday, mobile phone services were restored to a large degree, according to local journalists and press freedom advocates who spoke to CPJ.

http://cpj.org/2011/01/egypt-blocks-al-jazeera-transmissions-orders-burea.php

Internet Kill Switch is a Means of Censorship

I can't see any reasonable purpose for a government being able to shut down internet access in broad swathes; any internet "emergency" could (and would) realistically be handled quite well by the array of network providers involved in standing up the internet. Otherwise botnets would have killed us all long ago.

The only substantial threat to the internet is censorship (whether by governments or corporations).
Besides, we've already seen that our telecoms are all too eager to help the government with illegal spying upon the citizenry during an "emergency". What makes anyone think they would hesitate to pull the plug at that same government's behest?

In light of the recent incident in Egypt, it seems that the real purpose of such a kill switch is more useful as a means of censorship (a la big scandals that could make the US look bad, like Wikileaks). On a local scale, if I know my network is about to be attacked, I would cut off the main entrance into my network, while leaving the inside up and running. If they insist on a kill switch, why not just implement a similar scheme for all the "gateways" into government networks? As for each citizen's own access, I don't need the government to unplug my computer for me -- I can do that by myself, and am capable of making the decision to do so myself.

Will Mubarak's Regime Get Ousted?

Analysts have downplayed the likelihood that President Hosni Mubarak's regime would be ousted as a result of the protests. But the mass rallies in which tens of thousands have clashed with riot police have pushed to the surface latent concerns about Egypt and raised questions about the economic impact on the country.
The unrest appears to have already hit at least one U.S. oil company. Apache Corp., which has extensive operations in Egypt, has seen it's shares slide about 7 percent, wiping out $3 billion in market value, since Thursday in a drop analysts linked to the unrest in Egypt.

But Oppenheimer & Co. economist Fadel Gheit said in a research note that the concerns about Egypt may be overblown.

"A regime change in Egypt ... could trigger a chain reaction that could put all other governments in the region at risk," said Gheit. "However, in our view, even a regime change in Egypt may not negatively impact Apache's operations as its oil and gas development projects are critical to Egypt's economic growth."
While Egypt has enjoyed respectable economic growth figures, even during the global financial meltdown, the rallies have centered on the inequality in income distribution, allegations of corruption, and the grinding unemployment some analysts have put as high as 25 percent. Egypt's GDP growth is projected at about 6 percent in 2011.

It remains unclear whether Mubarak, who has ruled Egypt for nearly 30 years, will run for a sixth term in the September presidential election. But the protests have spotlighted the popular distaste for his eventual candidacy, or the increasingly discussed possibility that his younger son, Gamal, would take over.
Fitch said that while it doesn't expect Egypt's macroeconomic outlook to be seriously affected by the protests, it noted that serious challenges remain, such as high youth unemployment and food inflation running at about 17 percent per year.

"The severity of the macroeconomic impact will depend on political developments in the days and months ahead," Fitch said in a statement.

Travel Alert For Egypt.

The State Department has issued a travel alert urging tourists to avoid Egypt due to dangerous conditions.

Those already stranded in the country shouldn't leave hotels until the situation stabilizes, the alert stated.

Some airlines are halting flights to Cairo indefinitely.

Delta Air Lines' last flight from Cairo is scheduled to depart on Saturday, said spokeswoman Susan Elliot. American Airlines and British Airways are allowing customers to change ticket destinations for free until Monday.

The State Department's travel warning said the U.S. Embassy may be blocked off for security during demonstrations and cautioned citizens against going to the embassy during the turmoil. The alert provides contact numbers for security updates and travel information.

"Right now, we can only tell Americans to stay in place," a State Department representative said.

The current travel alert expires on February 28.